Rapeseed and canola markets strengthened last week despite higher 2026/27 production forecasts for Canada and global output. November canola futures in Winnipeg rose 4.2% over seven days to CAD 828/t ($597/t), supported by stronger demand from US processors and the biodiesel sector. November rapeseed futures on Paris’ Matif increased 1.9% to €549/t ($636/t), while remaining broadly unchanged month on month.
Physical supply to EU processors is being delayed by lower water levels on European rivers and the reported halt in shipments from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Although factories hold sufficient stocks, they are purchasing rapeseed at discounts of €20-25/t to Matif.
Ukrainian processor bids remain at UAH 20,000-21,500/t for 44% oil-content seed delivered to factories. Export prices are UAH 21,000-21,500/t EXW elevators, constrained by limited rail capacity to the EU. Danube and Black Sea port indications remain at $470-490/t, while western-border DAP prices have reached $460-490/t. Ukraine had harvested 3.76 million tonnes, or 99% of the crop, by August 17. Exports are estimated at 1.8-2 million tonnes, with processing potentially reaching 1.6-1.8 million tonnes.