Sugar prices have reached 15- to 16-month highs as analysts increasingly forecast a global deficit in the 2026/27 marketing year. Estimates range from 100,000 tonnes by Czarnikow to 3.3 million tonnes by Green Pool, with drought and El Niño expected to reduce cane output in India, Thailand and Brazil. Higher oil prices may also encourage greater cane processing into ethanol.
October London white sugar futures rose 15% over the past month to $539.5/t, while New York raw sugar futures increased 18% to $385/t. India’s reported plan to reduce sugar import duties further supported prices and could bring the country back into the import market.
The EU and UK are also facing lower output, forecast by S&P Global Energy at 14.98 million tonnes, an 11-year low. In Ukraine, 2026/27 production may be revised down by 100,000-200,000 tonnes from the previous 1.2 million-tonne estimate. Ukrainian exports reached 622,000 tonnes by 7 August, but limited seaborne access and high logistics costs are restraining domestic price gains, quoted at UAH 24,000-25,000/t.