Palm oil futures strengthened despite Malaysian stocks reaching a record 3.51 million tonnes at the end of September. December Bursa Malaysia futures rose 2.7% over the week to 4,682 ringgit/t, equivalent to about $1,140/t, supported by a 33–35% increase in exports during the first 10 days of October and a 2.5 million-tonne reduction in the USDA’s Indonesian production forecast. The report characterises the rally as largely speculative.
Higher palm oil prices are supporting competing soybean and sunflower oils by encouraging importers to switch demand. However, December soybean oil futures fell 2.8% to $1,498/t following an upward revision to the US soybean harvest outlook. Sunflower oil offers from the Black Sea to India were reported at $1,400–1,450/t CIF Mumbai, against Indian demand indications of $1,390–1,400/t.
In Ukraine, sunflower oil remained around $1,100/t FCA factory and $1,200/t delivered to the western border. Rising road and rail costs and shipment delays could pressure domestic prices further and may force some processing plants to suspend operations. Turkey-bound demand was assessed at $1,320–1,340/t, although cheaper Russian supply remains a competitive risk.