OilWorld has lowered its forecast for the 2026 EU rapeseed harvest after abnormal heat and drought damaged crops. Despite a 0.24 million-hectare increase in planted area to 6.37 million hectares, EU production is now estimated at 19.85 million tonnes, down from 20.51 million tonnes in 2025. Average yield is projected at 3.12 tonnes per hectare, compared with 3.35 tonnes last year.
Germany’s crop may fall to 3.8 million tonnes from 3.98 million tonnes, while the Czech Republic is reporting a 16% yield decline and a 19% reduction in output. Sweden’s production is expected at no more than 0.39 million tonnes. France is an exception, with output forecast to rise to 1.42 million tonnes from 1.27 million tonnes.
Copernicus reported that June and July were Western Europe’s hottest on record, while drought affected 38% of the EU. November rapeseed futures on Euronext fell 3.1% to €522/t despite tighter crop expectations. Uncertainty over Ukrainian exports and Canadian canola prices may increase volatility and support competition among EU processors for physical supplies.