Ongoing attacks on Odesa and Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube ports are disrupting wheat shipments, prompting traders to redirect cargoes by truck and rail to European ports and consumers. Ukraine exported only 340,000 tonnes of wheat from 1–21 August, 3.7 times below last year’s level. Cumulative exports in the 2026/27 marketing year reached 1.41 million tonnes, down 44% year on year.
Russian wheat exports totalled 1 million tonnes during the first 20 days of August, 2.6 times below last year. Shipments fell to 415,500 tonnes between 10 and 20 August, with cargoes loaded from only eight ports versus 29 a year earlier. Russian wheat offers declined to $220/t FOB Novorossiysk, while domestic food-wheat prices fell to $138–140/t.
Ukraine’s Danube export purchase prices decreased to UAH 8,000–8,500/t ($160–170/t) for food wheat and UAH 7,500–8,000/t ($150–155/t) for feed wheat. By contrast, delivered prices rose to $200–210/t at Galați and $235–237/t at Constanța, highlighting the cost of alternative logistics. September futures increased 1% on Euronext to €227.5/t, while the IGC cut its 2026/27 global production forecast by 4 million tonnes to 817 million.