ASAP Agri has modelled four scenarios for Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, with projected volumes ranging from 13.8 million tonnes to 45.8 million tonnes depending on the availability of Greater Odesa and Danube ports.
The study follows upward revisions to Ukraine’s 2026 crop forecast: USDA estimates production of major crops at 85.7 million tonnes, while ASAP Agri projects 86.1 million tonnes. However, export forecasts remain constrained by logistics, with USDA at 42.6 million tonnes and Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy at 38–40 million tonnes.
Without maritime ports, exports via rail and road could reach only 13.8 million tonnes, particularly limiting wheat, corn and barley. Danube access alone could raise exports to 23.6 million tonnes, but low water levels, costly transshipment, security risks and dependence on Constanta remain key constraints. Partial restoration of Greater Odesa could support 38.2 million tonnes, while full restoration would allow up to 45.8 million tonnes.
Alternative logistics are already more expensive: barge freight from the Danube to Egypt reportedly increased by $40 per tonne in one month. The scenarios highlight substantial downside risk for Ukrainian farmgate prices if seaborne capacity does not improve.