The International Grains Council (IGC) has reduced its 2026/27 global grain production forecast by 6 million tonnes to 2.415 billion tonnes, citing a prolonged heat wave in Europe. Wheat production was cut by 4 million tonnes to 817 million, while the corn forecast declined by 1 million tonnes to 1.305 billion tonnes. Although output would remain the second-highest on record, it is projected to fall 3% below last season’s record.
Global grain trade is forecast to decrease 3.5% to 451 million tonnes, with wheat trade showing the largest decline, at approximately 13 million tonnes. The IGC said problems with Black Sea exports, including the near cessation of deep-sea shipments from Ukraine and Russia, have left the world market around 4 million tonnes short of wheat since mid-July.
With consumption stable, global ending stocks could fall 4.5% to 606 million tonnes. The tighter grain outlook is relevant for European and Black Sea traders, while record soybean output of 441 million tonnes could increase oilseed availability. The IGC’s GOI index has risen 14% year-on-year.