Iran’s continued restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on tankers are supporting elevated crude oil prices, according to GrainTrade. October Brent futures rose 6% last week to $88.5/barrel, up 2.9% month-on-month, although gains were capped by reports that oil continues to transit the strait.
Ship-tracking data from Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa indicated that the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait were still exporting more than 4 million barrels per day through the waterway, in some cases with transponders switched off. Energy Aspects reported that average traffic had fallen to five vessels per day, compared with 14 during the June US-Iran memorandum period.
For agricultural commodity traders, the development is an indirect cost and demand signal rather than a direct grain-flow disruption. Sustained crude strength can raise marine and inland fuel costs and support biodiesel economics, potentially underpinning vegetable oil and oilseed demand. However, the article provides no evidence of an immediate change in European or Black Sea physical prices, freight rates or trade flows.