Germany’s Farmers’ Association (DBV) has lowered its 2026 grain harvest forecast by 7% year on year to 41.9 million tonnes, with average yields expected at 6.89 t/ha, according to a report dated 20 August. Dry spring conditions and intense June heat reduced grain filling, while regional deficits were particularly pronounced in southern and western Germany.
The winter wheat crop is forecast at 20.9 million tonnes, down 7%, with yield falling 9% to 7.21 t/ha from 2.9 million hectares. Winter barley production is estimated at 9.5 million tonnes, broadly unchanged despite a 4% yield decline, as planted area increased. The sharpest reduction concerns winter rapeseed: yield is projected down 20% to 2.91 t/ha, leaving output at 3.3 million tonnes.
The forecast contrasts with the European Commission’s estimate of 4–4.1 million tonnes for German rapeseed production, compared with 3.95 million tonnes in 2025. November MATIF rapeseed futures rose 1% to €551.75/t, while the conflicting estimates increase uncertainty for EU oilseed balances and import demand, including potential Ukrainian supplies.