The EU’s Crop Monitoring Service (MARS) sharply reduced its August yield forecasts for several major crops following prolonged heat and moisture deficits across western and central Europe. Compared with July, the soybean estimate was cut by 12% to 2.31 t/ha, 14% below the five-year average. The corn-for-grain forecast fell 5% to 6.61 t/ha, while sunflower declined 1% to 1.92 t/ha and rapeseed 2% to 3.09 t/ha. MARS warned that further heat-related losses, including complete crop failure in the most affected areas, remain possible for some spring crops.
Winter grain estimates were broadly maintained near five-year averages: soft wheat at 5.88 t/ha and barley at 5.02 t/ha. Wheat and barley yields are nevertheless down 7% and 11%, respectively, from 2025 levels.
In contrast, Ukraine’s outlook remains above its five-year average, with wheat at 4.74 t/ha, barley at 4.1 t/ha, corn at 8 t/ha and soybeans at 2.69 t/ha. The divergence could support Ukraine’s competitive role in regional grain and oilseed supply, although the report does not quantify export volumes or price effects.