Global nitrogen fertilizer markets are showing mixed regional trends, with China becoming a key supply factor and Black Sea disruptions affecting regional availability, according to GrainTrade’s September 1 review.
Granular urea prices continued rising in August: Egyptian FOB values increased by $15/t to $490/t, while Algeria reached $521/t FOB for prompt delivery, the United States $418/t FOB and Brazil $450/t CFR. However, expectations that China will issue a third fertilizer export quota of 2 million tonnes are creating pressure by potentially increasing regional supply.
Ammonia prices in Tampa fell from $825/t in May to $555/t CFR in August, while East-of-Suez values stabilized at $450-460/t CFR. European prices remain supported by TTF gas at €65-68/MWh, limiting domestic ammonia production and encouraging reliance on imports.
Baltic ammonium nitrate prices were reported at $340-360/t FOB, with September availability limited. Georgian nitrate exports to the EU have almost stopped amid SWAM restrictions; RustaveliAzot shipped only 4,000 tonnes to Romania in seven months, versus 59,000 tonnes to Ukraine. Falling Ukrainian nitrate prices contrast with wider international trends and may influence local crop input economics.