Global vegetable oil production is forecast by the USDA to reach a record 244.95 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 238.75 million tonnes in 2025/26. However, ending stocks are expected to remain broadly unchanged at 30.8 million tonnes as consumption increases.
The market remains supported by high crude oil prices and the reported cessation of vegetable oil exports from Black Sea ports in Ukraine and Russia. Brent crude was still 34% above year-earlier levels despite falling 2.8% over the week to $88.5/barrel.
Black Sea sunflower oil values eased as new-crop supply increased. Russian September offers fell $30/t to $1,330/t FOB, while Ukrainian prices declined $20-30/t to approximately $1,300/t delivered to Danube ports. Indian sunflower oil prices dropped $20/t to $1,470/t CIF Mumbai, but remained 15% above last year.
European rapeseed oil prices fell $30-40/t to $1,390-1,400/t FOB Netherlands, potentially adding pressure to Ukrainian rapeseed oil and EU sunflower oil. The figures indicate improved seasonal availability, but regional export disruptions and elevated energy costs continue to support prices.