Wheat futures rose sharply amid reported disruption to Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea export routes. GrainTrade reported that combined wheat exports from the two countries could fall to no more than 2.5 million tonnes in August 2026, compared with 6.3 million tonnes in August 2025. The estimate comprises approximately 2 million tonnes from Russia and 0.5 million tonnes from Ukraine.
September soft winter wheat futures in Chicago increased 3.3% on Friday to $281.8/t, up 20% over the month and described as a 3.5-year high. Kansas City HRW rose 3% to $304.2/t, Minneapolis HRS gained 1.7% to $273.8/t, and September wheat on Euronext advanced 2.4% to €239.5/t. December contracts were reported at a further $6-7/t premium.
The article also cited continued attacks affecting Ukraine’s Black Sea and Danube ports, raising delivery, freight and transshipment costs. A vessel carrying sugar from Reni to Turkey reportedly sank after being damaged near Romania on August 27. Separately, EU wheat exports had fallen 49% year-on-year to 1.48 million tonnes by August 16, while US export sales were 31% below last year’s pace. Further market direction remains dependent on Black Sea security and any maritime truce.